Every day we test our own live record against the question a skeptic would ask: could this be luck? This page shows the current reading, how it is computed, and the institutional metrics behind it. The reading is displayed whether favorable or not.
Live Trading Days
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since June 27, 2025 · no backtests
Excess Return, 95% CI (Ann.)
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vs RSP · gross of fees
P-Value (One-Sided)
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Newey-West HAC, primary spec
Significance Over Time
Each point on this line asks the same question the cards above ask, but using only the trading days up to that date. Early on there is not much evidence either way. As days accumulate the evidence either builds or it does not, and the line is that process.
Green means the reading stood at or above the 95% threshold on that date. Gray means it stood below. The color comes from what the number actually was that day, not from what it is today, so a strong current reading never repaints a stretch of history that had not earned it.
The line begins at the 60th trading day. Before that the standard error rests on too few observations to mean much, and plotting it would be false precision rather than more information.
Technically: expanding-window t-statistic of the mean daily excess return versus RSP, with Newey-West HAC q=4 standard errors. The dashed line is the 95% threshold (t = 1.96), the dotted line is 99% (t = 2.58). The full history is shown, including every period below threshold, because a metric that only appears when it is favorable is not a metric, it is marketing.
What This Means
Every trading day, we compare the strategy's return against RSP, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, the benchmark we committed to before trading began. The average daily edge is then measured against how noisy those days were. The result is a t-statistic, a standard measure any analyst can recompute from the same data. A t-statistic of 2 roughly means that if the strategy truly had no edge, a record this strong would appear less than 5 times in 100 by chance.
The current reading holds under five independent tests, including tests that make no assumptions about how markets behave. Because this is a live, prespecified record, a single strategy against a single benchmark chosen in advance, none of the skepticism discount applied to data-mined backtests is warranted here.
Three things this does not mean: it does not predict future returns, it does not guarantee any level of outperformance, and it is not a third-party verification. It is our live record, tested honestly, updated daily. Figures on this page are gross of fees; the same tests run on net returns are available on request.
The Test Battery
| Specification | What it assumes | Reading | Cadence |
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| Newey-West HAC q=4 (primary) | Allows serial correlation in daily returns | — | Daily |
| Independence (IID) t-test | Textbook assumptions | — | Daily |
| Jensen alpha regression (HAC) | Controls for beta rather than assuming beta of one | — | Daily |
| Stationary block bootstrap | No normality assumption; resamples the actual record in 10-day blocks | — | Daily |
| Closed-period sign test | Distribution-free; every completed cycle vs benchmark | 5 of 5 positive, p = 0.031 | Weekly report |
The daily rows recompute from the master data every time the pipeline runs. The closed-period sign test still comes from the most recent Information Edge Validation report, as of July 24, 2026, and updates when that report does. We set the claim on the primary HAC specification because that is the one we committed to in advance, not the one that reads best. The other tests are here to show the result does not lean on a single set of assumptions. The bootstrap in particular reads more favorably than HAC, which is precisely why it is not the number we claim on.
Institutional Metrics
| Metric | Value | Metric | Value |
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Computed daily from the live record against RSP, the prespecified primary benchmark. Jensen alpha is annualized from the daily OLS intercept with HAC standard errors, and capture ratios are geometric. Net returns deduct a 2% annual model advisory fee, accrued daily and compounded. Actual advisory fees range from 1% to 2% a year by account size, so the 2% model fee reflects the highest fee charged. Every other figure in this table is gross, calculated without deducting fees or expenses. The magnitude of the edge is far less certain than its existence: the 95% confidence interval on annualized excess return is wide, so point estimates should not be read as precise.
See the Live Record
These tests run on the same daily record shown across FLIGHTDECK. The next step in the chain is the live evidence itself.
Methodology. Daily strategy returns are the Alpha Convergence Flagship equity-only composite from the firm's authoritative master data, reconciled to custodial records. Benchmark returns are RSP total return: the daily price return from closing prices plus its dividend accrued evenly across trading days, taken as the annual per-share figure from the firm's master data divided by 252 over the prior close. Actual ex-date amounts are deliberately not booked on top of that accrual, which would count each distribution twice. The strategy side includes dividends received, so both sides are measured on the same basis. The primary inference is a Newey-West (1987) heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent test with Bartlett lag q = 4 applied to the mean daily excess return, per Lo (2002). Significance tiers display automatically: the 99% label appears only if the primary specification crosses t = 2.576 two-sided, and the label downgrades automatically if the reading falls below a threshold. The stationary block bootstrap resamples the actual daily record with a 10-day expected block length across 20,000 replications and assumes no particular shape for the return distribution. Statistical significance describes the historical record and does not predict future results.
Disclosures. Life UnLocked Partners LLC dba LUL Asset Management is a California Registered Investment Adviser (DFPI CRD# 318642). This page is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell securities or personalized investment advice. Performance figures are gross of management and performance fees unless otherwise indicated; net-of-fee figures and the complete weekly Statistical Validation Report are available on request. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.